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How to properly evaluate a potential investment property

Life is full of sayings that seem contradictory at first.  Expressions like “a chain is only as strong as its weakest link” and a “team is only as good as its worst player” seem to make no sense until they have been analyzed and understood.  In flipping homes, you make your money when you buy.  Quite simply, if you buy a home at the proper discount then you have a much better chance of selling at a profit.  Here is a general outline to help you evaluate a potential home for investment.

First, Take a Casual Drive

It is a good idea to only consider homes that you can actually inspect.  Being able to drive by the home gives you a firsthand perspective. On your way to the home pay attention to the little details such as

• condition of the roads; are there large potholes, pavement patches, adequate street signs?
• local area; are there any schools, shopping, offices, or factories nearby?
• Appearance of the actual street; how do the other homes on the block look?
• The prospective home; what is your first impression when you see the place?

Second, take a Casual Stroll

Now that you have had the time to look at the home and surrounding area from the road, it is time to actually look at the property up close.  When you are in the home ignore things like carpeting and paint.  Take time to look over the roof, the foundation, the electrical box, the HVAC unit and any plumbing pipe that is easy to access.   Walk outside and see if the septic tank or well has any problem.  These are the areas that can cost major money to fix.  If there are any noticeable problems with these primary parts of the home you can use that to negotiate with the seller.

Third, crunch some numbers

Now that you have looked over the home and determined that it is a possible investment, it is time to do the math.  You need to have an idea of what the total repairs will cost along with how much the home should be worth after the repairs are completed.  Once you have these numbers you can make an offer to the seller.

When putting together your repair estimates it is always better to over price.  Trying to cut corners and dream that the kitchen can be remodeled for $2,000, or some other wishful hope, will cause you tremendous grief later on.

After you have looked at a few homes and talked with the same contractor a number of times you can start to get a feel for how much repairs will cost.  This one skill takes some time to master for those that are new to real estate investment.   Once you are comfortable estimating repair costs you will be much better at spotting a deal when it pops up.

Search for: Madison, WI Foreclosures for Sale

I have read several news and Blog pieces about 2012 being the bottom of the market and how the best time to purchase a home is now. In good conscious I cannot sit idly by without voicing my opinion.

The news and columnists have based their analysis on the low number of inventory currently on the market for sale and the fact that it is 22% less than this time last year. They further site a 30% increase in property searches on Realtor.com which is one of the top search websites where consumers make purchase decisions. The reporters further substantiate their point by stating that interest rates are the lowest they have been since the great depression. Well folks, I am here to let you in on a few things. I am a distressed property real estate broker and live in the numbers and happenings on the ground. Last year alone I personally closed $17 Million in real estate. More than three quarters of my sales were short sales and bank owned property sales. My job revolves around tracking properties that have defaulted on their mortgage payments and listing the property for sale before it ends up in foreclosure. When properties do end up going to foreclosure the banks also contacts me to sell the properties back into the marketplace as a bank owned property. This is also known as a REO (Real Estate Owned) property.

In dealing with the lenders on a daily basis I have the ability to see how many mortgages are current or behind in any part of California. The numbers are staggering! One in three properties in San Diego County is currently underwater (owe more than what the property is worth).
Many of you may have heard of the “Mortgage Debt Relief Act of 2007” which is set to expire at the end of 2012. This means that anyone wanting to do a short sale has until the end of this year to get it done to avoid the enormous tax and deficiency implications. As homeowners scramble to do short sales, the banks are absolutely inundated with files. Banks have increased their loss mitigation departments to handle the amount of short sale requests as the deadline draws near.

So to shed further light on the subject of a “recovery,” I would have to say that the reason there is a 22% decrease in inventory on the market for sale is due to the “Robo-signing” debacle which simply held up the foreclosure process for a few months. Furthermore, the lenders have started issuing three month extensions to foreclosure sale dates rather than the standard 30 day extensions. The numbers are artificially adjusted to modify the supply and demand ratio. Also, the news columnists have stated that the average nationwide sales price has started increasing and the market is recovering. This is not quite correct because the number of higher end distressed sales has dramatically increased. In other words, if 100 homes sell at $200K and 900 homes sell at $500K, the average home price may have increased.  However, what they are not saying is that the home that is currently selling at $500K was purchased in 2005 for $900K.  See how they are messing with the numbers. Just because the average nationwide sales price has increased, does not mean we are recovering.

So I would maybe agree that the lower end has reached the bottom whereas the middle and higher end have room to fall.  Far be it from me to state that 2012 is the “Big Housing Recovery.” New young families or recent college graduates will also add to the lower end recovery as they will need to purchase in this range.

The number of Baby Boomers now wanting to downsize will further hamper the prices of the middle and higher end as they add to the supply. There are currently 30 million Americans in this segment of the market.

The FED made an error in judgment a month ago when they stated interest rates would remain low through the end of 2014, which took away the immediate driving force to purchase now. If interest rates would remain low for an extended period of time, why would anyone be in a hurry to purchase when they know how much shadow inventory the lenders are sitting on?

As the world has become a global economy, few have shed light on the fact that China has begun their housing crisis with more than half the cities reporting huge decreases in home prices. This may have an influence on our economy further down the road as this may affect the cost of consumer goods locally.

Gas prices are at an all-time high and could further contribute to inflation and gyrations in the consumer price index.

Unemployment is still stubbornly above 8% and steam rises from the printing presses at the Fed.

I don’t know folks. Recovery 2012?  I am not so sure. And over the years I have learned that in the long run it pays to be honest rather than bending a situation for personal gain. There is a reason I am renting right now. Though the rents are higher, cash will soon be back on the thrown to be crowned King. Don’t be in any hurry to purchase unless you find a great deal.

This is my honest humble opinion.