This may be a regional question, A recent Miami Herald article says RE are slowly creeping back to "normal", They said a year ago distressed home listing account for 70% of all homes listed, now it is 50%, so it's SLOWLY "creeping back to normal" as "normal" is 7%! Is it close to 50% in where you all are at?
On the other hand, it warns that two factors will probably push it back to above 50% because:
(1) Banks have been holding off foreclosing on properties in the wake of the so-called “robo-signing” scandal, in which major lenders were accused of shoddy paperwork tied to delinquent loans. But with a national settlement reached last year, the foreclosure pipeline should become active again in 2012. Therefore there should be more foreclosed homes flooding into the market soon. Right now the estimate is that Florida has about 500,000 of shadow inventory, that is half a million homes in varying degrees of distress that is NOT on the market.
(2) The Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act and Debt Cancellation ends at the end of this year, so to expect many short sale coming on the market for those who are trying to beat this deadline.
What is even more interesting in that article:
"The Keyes Co. brokerage cited South Florida figures showing the average distressed home this year is selling for $140,000, versus $265,000 for a non-distressed home."
I have been looking at buying short sale and REO homes, and I am not seeing the kind of discount (140 vs 265) they are talking about, no where near it. I am getting may be 10-15% discount and that is with a 100% cash offer with no contingency (except inspection) whatsoever.
Any comments? Disagree or agree with the article?
Replies
Jack - It's really a micro-market type of thing. I don't think anyone can make a general statement. The Mortgage Debt Relief Act will probably be extended, but property owners can also use the IRS insolvency rule to avoid taxes on cancelled debt (most are insolvent anyway). As for the statistic about short sale vs non-distressed, I don't think that is an apples-to-apples comparison. It just shows me that the lower price range has more distressed sales.